The Biden Administration's decision to pause LNG export licenses stinks. It is another self-imposed restriction on U.S. geopolitical and economic power.
Do you see Biden’s move to obtain or encourage voter support with the LNG issue as different than the intractable moves being taken by the House GOP to derail any meaningful progress on current immigration issues? The immigration effort is generating far more noise than the LNG issue and the players are blatantly advertising it to not support Biden in this election year, at TFG’s suggestion.
Why is Biden’s administrative action on LNG policy not appropriate in today’s geopolitical environment given that it is very different than it was when it was last completed?
I am not an immigration expert, but based on my limited reading on the subject it is a real problem that needs solutions, and the Biden Administration is doing nothing about it as far as I can tell. I certainly do not believe the GOP is an optimal policymaking machine either. Neither are doing your average American any favors.
In my opinion, the LNG export pause is a terrible solution for a non-existent problem. And I have to deal with the consequences on a daily basis, so it hits home for me and I am much more in tune with the issue. So I focused on that.
“Based on the list of countries above, who believes a significant majority of them will follow the United States and voluntarily limit their future LNG exports? Anyone?”
Unfortunately, the McKibbenites of the world would never 1) even consider looking at such a list and 2) ponder the very important question you asked from it. Their myopic view of the world is a deeply ingrained addiction with predictable behaviors.
I very much appreciate the facts and details you’ve presented here.
Thanks Douglas! There certainly is a dearth of critical analysis undertaken by the poverty promotors. Their worldview is extremely simplistic and nonsensical.
Apologize for a second comment, but how can intelligent people see the following from your post and not ask questions? - “According to the International Monetary Fund, Germany had the worst performing major economy in 2023.” I’m no expert, but it seems obvious this is more than just bad luck.
The U.S. has so much capacity already authorized beyond what’s under construction and even at FID! And global demand for LNG has a very good chance of declining, due to clean energy deployment (thanks to lower tech costs) and climate forward policies. What’s missing here is the surge of Henry Hub prices in 2022, at 14 year highs. But I won’t say that’s due to LNG exports, but it’s just interestingly missing in the “prices are low” argument. All in all, we know what the gas and LNG market balance will look like through the early 2030s, and that is over supplied, ie a low price environment. So, a temporary pause will have a very limited impact on global markets and energy security overall.
Thanks! All prices were higher in 2022 globally. And I am less optimistic that forward trends/forecasts through 2030 will reflect reality. History has shown that forecasts are often way off. We have no idea what the next six years will bring to the global gas market. Uncertainty with respect to longer term US gas supply is a sub optimal outcome given all the current geopolitical risks. In my opinion.
I think we do know what will happen to the market through the early/mid 2030s given the ample volumes coming online! There seems to be a consensus on that. I’m pretty confident there’s not too much that will throw off the glut that’s coming, unless there are some black swan events on the horizon. But overall, with new Qatari and US additions alone (not even considering demand outlooks), we will almost certainly be in a glut. Beyond mid 2030s will really depend on demand, and that is definitely less certain.
Anyway, looking forward to reading more of your pieces.
Than you for the LNG insights. Simple questions…
Do you see Biden’s move to obtain or encourage voter support with the LNG issue as different than the intractable moves being taken by the House GOP to derail any meaningful progress on current immigration issues? The immigration effort is generating far more noise than the LNG issue and the players are blatantly advertising it to not support Biden in this election year, at TFG’s suggestion.
Why is Biden’s administrative action on LNG policy not appropriate in today’s geopolitical environment given that it is very different than it was when it was last completed?
Thanks for your note.
I am not an immigration expert, but based on my limited reading on the subject it is a real problem that needs solutions, and the Biden Administration is doing nothing about it as far as I can tell. I certainly do not believe the GOP is an optimal policymaking machine either. Neither are doing your average American any favors.
In my opinion, the LNG export pause is a terrible solution for a non-existent problem. And I have to deal with the consequences on a daily basis, so it hits home for me and I am much more in tune with the issue. So I focused on that.
“Based on the list of countries above, who believes a significant majority of them will follow the United States and voluntarily limit their future LNG exports? Anyone?”
Unfortunately, the McKibbenites of the world would never 1) even consider looking at such a list and 2) ponder the very important question you asked from it. Their myopic view of the world is a deeply ingrained addiction with predictable behaviors.
I very much appreciate the facts and details you’ve presented here.
Thanks Douglas! There certainly is a dearth of critical analysis undertaken by the poverty promotors. Their worldview is extremely simplistic and nonsensical.
Apologize for a second comment, but how can intelligent people see the following from your post and not ask questions? - “According to the International Monetary Fund, Germany had the worst performing major economy in 2023.” I’m no expert, but it seems obvious this is more than just bad luck.
No worries! Germany (and Europe more broadly) is in real trouble.
Great article. Detailed, comprehensive analysis and likely potential outcomes for LNG supply and demand. Thank you for posting.
The U.S. has so much capacity already authorized beyond what’s under construction and even at FID! And global demand for LNG has a very good chance of declining, due to clean energy deployment (thanks to lower tech costs) and climate forward policies. What’s missing here is the surge of Henry Hub prices in 2022, at 14 year highs. But I won’t say that’s due to LNG exports, but it’s just interestingly missing in the “prices are low” argument. All in all, we know what the gas and LNG market balance will look like through the early 2030s, and that is over supplied, ie a low price environment. So, a temporary pause will have a very limited impact on global markets and energy security overall.
Thanks! All prices were higher in 2022 globally. And I am less optimistic that forward trends/forecasts through 2030 will reflect reality. History has shown that forecasts are often way off. We have no idea what the next six years will bring to the global gas market. Uncertainty with respect to longer term US gas supply is a sub optimal outcome given all the current geopolitical risks. In my opinion.
I think we do know what will happen to the market through the early/mid 2030s given the ample volumes coming online! There seems to be a consensus on that. I’m pretty confident there’s not too much that will throw off the glut that’s coming, unless there are some black swan events on the horizon. But overall, with new Qatari and US additions alone (not even considering demand outlooks), we will almost certainly be in a glut. Beyond mid 2030s will really depend on demand, and that is definitely less certain.
Anyway, looking forward to reading more of your pieces.